1QFY2018 Result Update | IT
July 18, 2017
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)
ACCUMULATE
CMP
`2,399
Performance highlights
Target Price
`2,651
(` cr)
1QFY18
4QFY17
% chg (qoq)
1QFY17
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
12 Months
Net revenue
29,584
29,642
(0.2)
29,305
1.0
Adj. EBITDA
7,065
8,147
(13.3)
7,971
(11.4)
Stock Info
Adj. EBITDA margin (%)
25.1
27.5
(243.1)
27.2
(168.9)
Sector
IT
Adj. PAT
5,945
6,608
(10.0)
6,317
(5.9)
Market Cap (` cr)
4,58,606
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net Debt (` cr)
-45,288
For 1QFY2018, TCS posted below expectation results on the EBIT and net profit fronts. The
Beta
0.6
company posted
3.1% sequential growth in USD revenues to US$4,591mn v/s.
52 Week High / Low
2,834/2,055
US$4,585mn expected, mostly volume lead (3.5% qoq growth). On Constant Currency
Avg. Daily Volume
1,10,516
terms, the company posted a 2.0% qoq growth. On profitability, the EBIT margins came in
Face Value (`)
1
at 23.4% v/s. 24.2% expected, posting a qoq dip of 236bps. Impact of wage hikes and
BSE Sensex
32,021
visa expenses, apart from rupee appreciation were the major drags on profitability.
Nifty
9,886
Consequently, PAT came in at `5,945cr v/s. `6,275cr expected, de-growth of 10.0% qoq.
Reuters Code
TCS.BO
We maintain our Accumulate rating with a target price of `2,651.
Bloomberg Code
TCS@IN
Quarterly highlights: Company posted 3.1% sequential growth in USD revenues to
US$4,591mn v/s. US$4,585mn expected, mostly volume lead (3.5% qoq growth). On
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Constant Currency terms, the company posted a 2.0% qoq growth. In terms of geography,
Promoters
73.6
Latin America and Continental Europe posted a qoq growth of
2.8% and
5.9%
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
5.5
respectively. Its key market USA posted a qoq growth of 1.7%. India and Asia Pacific
FII / NRIs / OCBs
17.0
posted a qoq growth of 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. On profitability, the EBIT margins
Indian Public / Others
4.0
came in at 23.4% v/s. 24.2% expected, posting a qoq dip of 236bps. Impact of wage
hikes and visa expenses, apart from rupee appreciation were the major drags on
profitability. Consequently, PAT came in at `5,945 v/s. `6,275cr expected, de-growth of
Abs.(%)
3m 1yr
3yr
10.0% qoq. On operational front, the LTM attrition was at 11.6% in IT Services.
Sensex
28.0
14.6
29.0
Outlook and valuation: The Company has been cautiously optimistic regarding its
TCS
(1.1)
(4.8)
4.1
outlook for FY2018, with key verticals like BFSI and Hi-Tech expected to post a recovery.
Also, on the EBIT front the company is confident of managing the EBIT margins in the
3-Year Daily Price Chart
range of 26-28%. We expect TCS to post revenue CAGR of 8.5% in USD as well as INR
3,000
terms over FY2017-19E. Hence, maintain our Accumulate recommendation.
2,500
Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS)
2,000
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
1,500
Net sales
1,08,646
1,17,966
1,27,403
1,38,870
1,000
% chg
14.8
8.6
8.0
9.0
500
Net profit
24,215
26,289
28,272
30,524
0
% chg
11.6
8.6
7.5
8.0
EBITDA margin (%)
28.3
27.5
27.6
27.6
EPS (`)
123.7
134.3
144.5
156.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
P/E (x)
19.4
17.9
16.6
15.4
P/BV (x)
6.4
5.3
4.9
4.6
RoE (%)
33.1
29.8
29.7
29.8
RoCE (%)
31.6
28.8
28.9
29.2
Sarabjit kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.0
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
sarabjit @angelbroking.com
EV/EBITDA (x)
14.3
13.0
12.1
10.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of July 14, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2018 performance (Consolidated, IFRS)
(` cr)
1QFY2018
4QFY2017
% chg (qoq)
1QFY2017
% chg (yoy)
FY2017
FY2016
% chg(yoy)
Net revenue
29,584
29,642
(0.2)
29,305
1.0
1,17,966
1,08,646
8.6
Cost of revenue
16,792
16,153
4.0
16,312
2.9
65,402
59,459
10.0
Gross profit
12,792
13,489
(5.2)
12,993
(1.5)
52,564
49,187
6.9
SG&A expense
5,379
5,342
0.7
5,156
4.3
20,755
18,956
9.5
EBITDA
7,413
8,147
(9.0)
7,837
(5.4)
31,809
30,231
5.2
Dep. and amortisation
499
520
(4.0)
490
1.8
1,485
1,441
3.1
EBIT
6,914
7,627
(9.3)
7,347
(5.9)
30,324
28,790
5.3
Other income
932
989
(5.8)
963
(3.2)
4,189
3,050
37.3
PBT
7,846
8,616
(8.9)
8,310
(5.6)
34,513
31,840
8.4
Income tax
1,896
1,994
(4.9)
1,992
(4.8)
8,156
7,503
8.7
PAT
5,950
6,622
(10.1)
6,318
(5.8)
26,357
24,337
8.3
Earnings in affiliates
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Minority interest
5
14
1
-
68
123
Reported PAT
5,945
6,608
(10.0)
6,317
(5.9)
26,289
24,215
8.6
Adj. PAT
5,945
6,608
(10.0)
6,317
(5.9)
26,289
24,215
8.6
EPS
30.4
33.7
(10.0)
32.3
(5.9)
133.4
123.2
8.3
Gross margin (%)
43.2
45.5
(227)bp
44.3
(110)bp
44.6
45.3
(71)bp
EBITDA margin (%)
25.1
27.5
(243)bp
26.7
(169)bp
27.0
27.8
(86)bp
EBIT margin (%)
23.4
25.7
(236)bp
25.1
(170)bp
25.7
26.5
(79)bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Actual v/s Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimate
Var. (%)
Net revenue
29,584
29,600
(0.1)
EBIT margin (%)
23.4
24.2
(88)bps
Adj. PAT
5,945
6,275
(5.3)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Numbers just in-line with expectations
TCS’ results were below expectations on the EBIT and net profit fronts. The company posted
3.1% sequential growth in USD revenues to US$4,591mn v/s. US$4,585mn expected,
mostly volume lead (3.5% qoq growth). On Constant Currency terms, the company posted a
2.0% qoq growth. In Rupee terms, revenues are expected to come in at `29,548cr v/s.
`29,600cr expected, down 0.2% qoq.
In terms of verticals, on CC basis, the growth registered by the company in respective
segments was, BFSI (2.3% qoq), Retail & CPG (2.0% qoq), Communication & Media (3.9%
qoq), Manufacturing
(3.8% qoq), Life Sciences & Healthcare
(4.7% qoq),
Hi-Tech (3.7% qoq), Energy Utilities (7.6% qoq), Travel & Hospitality (7.0% qoq).
In terms of geography, on CC basis, qoq growth was North America (1.7% qoq), Latin
America (2.8% qoq), UK (0.7% qoq), Continental Europe (5.9% qoq), India (1.5% qoq), Asia
Pacific (1.2% qoq), MEA (0.7% qoq).
July 18, 2017
2
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Trend in volume and revenue growth (qoq)
8
7
6
5
3.7
3.5
4
3
3.1
3.4
1.7
2
1.0
1.3
1
1.5
0
0.3
-1
1QFY17
2QFY17
0.3
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
Volume growth
Revenue growth (USD terms)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Revenue drivers for 1QFY2018
4
3.5
3.1
3
2
1.5
1
0
-1
-2
(1.9)
-3
Volume
Currency impact
CC realization
Total revenue growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
In Communication, weakness was seen in UK, Europe and Asia Pacific, while in
Healthcare, US slowed down. However, both these factors are one-offs. Revenue
from Digital grew by 7.6% qoq, and it now constitutes to 17.9% of total revenue.
Exhibit 5: Revenue growth (Industry wise on CC basis)
% to revenue
% chg (CC qoq)
% chg (yoy)
BFSI
32.9
2.3
5.1
Manufacturing
7.5
3.8
10.2
Communication & Media
7.3
3.9
11.6
Life sciences and healthcare
7.1
4.7
10.7
Retail and CPG
12.2
2.0
(3.4)
Transportation & Hospitality
3.5
3.7
16.5
Energy and utilities
4.0
4.0
20.3
Technology & Services
7.9
3.7
8.2
Regional Markets & Others
17.6
(3.6)
5.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 18, 2017
3
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Geography wise growth in INR sales in key geographies was as follows: USA (1.7%
qoq on CC basis), Latin America (2.8% qoq on CC basis), UK (0.7% qoq on CC
basis), India (1.5% qoq on CC basis), and MEA (0.7% qoq on CC basis). However,
Continental Europe and Asia Pacific posted growth of 5.9% qoq and 1.2% qoq on
CC basis respectively.
Exhibit 6: Revenue growth (Geography wise in INR terms)
% of revenue
% chg (CC qoq)
% chg (yoy)
U.S.
52.5
1.7
3.5
Latin America
2.1
2.8
8.0
U.K.
13.9
0.7
6.3
Continental Europe
12.5
5.9
16.5
India
7.0
1.5
13.3
Asia Pacific
9.5
1.2
4.7
MEA
2.5
0.7
8.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Attrition rate appreciates
In 1QFY2018, TCS witnessed a gross addition of 11,202 employees and net
addition of (1,414) employees, taking its total employee base to 3,85,809. During
the quarter, the attrition rate (last twelve month [LTM] basis) for the company
increased to 12.5% from 11.5% in 4QFY2017.
Exhibit 7: Hiring and attrition trend
Particulars
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
Gross addition
17,792
22,665
18,362
20,093
11,202
Net addition
8,236
9,440
6,978
8,726
(1,414)
Total employee base
3,62,079
3,71,519
3,78,497
3,87,223
3,85,809
Attrition (%) - LTM basis
13.6
12.9
12.2
11.5
12.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Margin dips
On the operating front, the company reported EBITDA and EBIT margins at 25.1%
and 23.4%, i.e. a contraction of 243bps and 236bps qoq respectively. The break
up across cost items is - Employee costs (200bps), Rent expenses (30bps) and
Visas and consultants (30bps). However, for FY2018, the company has guided the
EBIT margins to be in the range of 26-28%.
July 18, 2017
4
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 8: Adj. Margin profile
30
27.7
27.5
27.2
26.7
25.1
25
26.0
26.0
25.7
25.1
23.4
20
15
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
Source: Company, Angel Research
Client metrics
The client pyramid during the quarter witnessed a qualitative improvement with
client additions seen in the higher revenue brackets. The clients in US$100mn+
revenue band increased by 1 and in US$10mn+ revenue band increased by 12.
TCS won four large deals in BFSI in 1QFY2018, but cited that the pipeline remains
short. The pipeline for Insurance is strong, which can result in a stronger
2HFY2018.
Exhibit 9: Client pyramid
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
US$1mn-5mn
408
410
426
438
441
US$5mn-10mn
141
154
154
149
142
US$10mn-20mn
119
110
114
120
132
US$20mn-50mn
102
107
106
106
105
US$50mn-100mn
40
42
46
49
49
US$100mn plus
37
36
34
35
36
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 18, 2017
5
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Investment Argument
Guidance - Cautious optimism: The management refrained from giving any
guidance for FY2018, however it expects a bounce back of the key verticals like
BFSI, Communications and Hi-Tech. Digital also continues to see a good traction.
On EBIT front, the company expects to manage its margins in 26-28% range. We
expect the company to post a US$ revenue CAGR of 8.5% over FY2017-19E.
Management Reggie: With Mr. Natarajan Chandrasekaran being the Chairman of
Tata Sons since February 21, 2017, CFO Mr. Rajesh Gopinathan has taken
charge as the CEO of the company. He started his professional career with TCS in
2001 and was appointed as the CFO in February 2013. TCS also announced N G
Subramanian as the COO of the company. Thus, the new targets under the new
CEO will have a bearing on the performance of the company.
Growth fundamentals intact: Despite the near term uncertainty arising out of Brexit
and new macro dynamics in US, TCS remains optimistic to make a comeback after
current cyclical headwinds are behind. Long term drivers of tech spending will
remain intact and new growth areas are emerging. Strength in Digital bounced
back after seeing some weakness in 2QFY2017. Revenue from Digital grew by
7.6% qoq and it now constitutes to 17.9% of total revenue. Thus, the company has
invested well to reap the benefits over long term.
Outlook and valuation
Over FY2017-19E, we expect TCS to post revenue CAGR of
8.5% in
USD and INR terms. The company highlighted that it stands comfortable of
sustaining the EBIT margin in the range of 26-28%. On the EBIT and PAT fronts,
we expect the company to post
8.7% and
7.8% CAGR over FY2017-19E
respectively. The stock is trading at 15.4x FY2019E EPS of `156. We maintain our
Accumulate recommendation.
Exhibit 10: Key assumptions
FY2018E
FY2019E
Revenue growth (USD)
8.0
9.0
USD-INR rate (realized)
67.1
67.1
Revenue growth (`)
8.0
9.0
EBITDA margin (%)
27.6
27.6
Tax rate (%)
23.5
23.5
EPS growth (%)
7.5
8.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 18, 2017
6
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Exhibit 11: One-year forward PE chart
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Price
25x
21x
16x
11x
6x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt. price
Upside
FY2019E
FY2019E
FY2017-19E
FY2019E
FY2019E
(`)
(`)
(%)
EBITDA (%)
P/E (x)
EPS CAGR (%)
EV/Sales (x)
RoE (%)
HCL Tech
Buy
851
1,014
19.1
20.9
12.6
6.2
1.8
20.6
Infosys
Buy
972
1,179
21.3
26.0
14.0
5.3
2.2
19.6
TCS
Accumulate
2,399
2,651
10.5
27.6
15.4
7.8
3.0
29.8
Tech Mahindra
Buy
388
533
37.5
15.0
10.2
8.6
1.0
16.3
Wipro
Accumulate
260
280
7.9
20.3
13.6
4.4
1.2
13.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 18, 2017
7
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Company background
TCS is Asia's largest IT services provider and is amongst the top 10 technology
firms in the world. The company has a global footprint with an employee base of
over 3lakh professionals, offering services to more than 1,000 clients across
various industry segments. The company has one of the widest portfolios of service
offerings, spanning across the entire IT service value chain - from traditional
application development and maintenance to consulting and package
implementation to products and platforms.
July 18, 2017
8
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Profit & Loss statement (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E FY2019E
Net sales
94,648
1,08,646
1,17,966
1,27,403
1,38,870
Cost of revenue
50,599
58,952
64,764
68,798
74,990
Gross profit
44,049
49,695
53,202
58,606
63,880
% of net sales
46.5
45.7
45.1
46.0
46.0
SGA expenses
17,353
18,956
20,755
23,442
25,552
% of net sales
18.3
17.4
17.6
18.4
18.4
EBITDA
26,696
30,738
32,447
35,163
38,328
% of net sales
28.2
28.3
27.5
27.6
27.6
Dep. and amortization
1272
1948
2123
2293
2500
% of net sales
1.3
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
EBIT
25,424
28,790
30,324
32,870
35,828
% of net sales
26.9
26.5
25.7
25.8
25.8
Other income, net
3140
3050
4189
4189
4189
Profit before tax
28,564
31,840
34,513
37,059
40,017
Provision for tax
6,083
7,503
8,156
8,709
9,404
% of PBT
21.3
23.6
23.6
23.5
23.5
PAT
22,481
24,338
26,357
28,350
30,613
Minority interest
205
123
68
78
89
Extra-ordinary (Exp.)/ Inc.
-2627.9
Reported PAT
19,648
24,215
26,289
28,272
30,524
Adj. PAT
21,696
24,215
26,289
28,272
30,524
Diluted EPS (`)
110.9
123.7
134.3
144.5
156.0
July 18, 2017
9
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Assets
Cash and cash equivalents
1,862
1,862
3,597.0
4,500.0
5,000.0
Other current financial assets
16,383
4,833
-
-
-
Accounts receivable
20,440
24,073
22,684
31,694
31,695
Unbilled revenues
3,827
3,992
5,351
5,348
5,349
Other current assets
6,414
5,975
7,258
7,258
7,258
Property and equipment
11,572
11,790
11,741
12,741
13,741
Intangible assets and goodwill
3,931
3,946
3,768
3,768
3,768
Investments
9,619
22,822
41,980
39,267
46,761
Other non current assets
906
11,919
8,974
8,974
8,974
Total assets
74,954
91,212
1,05,353
1,13,550
1,22,545
Liabilities
Current liabilities
14,428
15,407
14,294
15,288
16,664
Short term borrowings
243
162
218
218
218
Redeemable preference shares
-
(0)
-
1
2
Long term debt
114
83
71
71
71
Other non current liabilities
1,778
2,017
2,089
2,442
2,662
Minority interest
914
354
366
444
533
Shareholders funds
57,477
73,190
88,315
95,086
1,02,397
Total liabilities
74,954
91,212
1,05,353
1,13,550
1,22,545
July 18, 2017
10
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Pre-tax profit from oper.
22,481
24,338
26,357
28,350
30,613
Depreciation
1,272
1,948
2,123
2,293
2,500
Exp. (deferred)/written off
160
174
-
-
-
Pre tax cash from oper
23,913
26,460
28,480
30,643
33,113
Other inc./prior period ad
1,272
1,948
2,123
2,293
2,500
Net cash from operations
25,185
28,408
30,604
32,937
35,613
Tax
6,083
7,503
8,156
8,709
9,404
Cash profits
19,102
20,905
22,448
24,228
26,209
(Inc)/dec in acc. recv.
(2,210)
(3,633)
1,389
(9,010)
(1)
(Inc)/dec in unbilled rev.
179
(165)
(1,359)
3
(1)
(Inc)/dec in oth. current asst.
(6,414)
439
(1,283)
-
-
Inc/(dec) in current liab.
(1,207)
(218)
49
(1,000)
(1,000)
Net trade working capital
(9,652)
(3,577)
(1,204)
(10,007)
(1,002)
Cash flow from opert. actv.
9,450
17,328
21,243
14,221
25,207
(Inc)/dec in fixed assets
(1,207)
(218)
49
(1,000)
(1,000)
(Inc)/dec in investments
(4,446)
(1,653)
(14,325)
2,713
(7,494)
(Inc)/dec in intangible asst.
(226)
16
(178)
-
-
(Inc)/dec in non-cur.asst.
(906)
(11,013)
2,945
-
-
Cash flow from invt. actv.
(6,786)
(12,869)
(11,509)
1,713
(8,494)
Inc/(dec) in debt
61
(113)
44
-
-
Inc/(dec) in equity
223
(559)
12
78
89
Inc/(dec) in minority int.
(19,923)
(18,415)
(19,993)
(21,501)
(23,213)
Dividends
16,976
14,629
10,202
5,489
6,411
Cash flow from finan. actv.
(2,664)
(4,459)
(9,735)
(15,934)
(16,713)
Cash generated/(utilized)
393
-
1,735
903
500
Cash at start of the year
1,469
1,862
1,862
3,597
4,500
Cash at end of the year
1,862
1,862
3,597
4,500
5,000
July 18, 2017
11
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Key ratios
Y/E March
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
Valuation ratio(x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
21.6
19.4
17.9
16.6
15.4
P/CEPS
22.5
18.0
16.5
15.4
14.2
P/BVPS
8.2
6.4
5.3
4.9
4.6
Dividend yield (%)
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.1
EV/Sales
4.6
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.0
EV/EBITDA
16.5
14.3
13.0
12.1
10.9
EV/Total assets
5.9
4.8
4.0
3.7
3.4
Per share data (`)
EPS
110.9
123.7
134.3
144.5
156.0
Cash EPS
106.8
133.6
145.1
156.0
168.6
Dividend
43.5
40.2
43.6
46.9
50.6
Book value
294
374
451
486
523
Dupont analysis
Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT)
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT)
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales)
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets)
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity)
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Operating ROE
39.1
33.3
29.8
29.8
29.9
Return ratios (%)
RoCE (pre-tax)
33.9
31.6
28.8
28.9
29.2
Angel RoIC
54.0
46.7
50.7
47.1
50.6
RoE
34.2
33.1
29.8
29.7
29.8
Turnover ratios(x)
Asset turnover (fixed assets)
8.2
9.2
10.0
10.0
10.1
Receivables days
79
81
70
91
83
July 18, 2017
12
TCS | 1QFY2018 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
TCS
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
July 18, 2017
13