2QFY2016 Result Update | Banking
October 28, 2015
Axis Bank
BUY
CMP
`483
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`630
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY16
1QFY16
% chg (qoq)
2QFY15
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
12 Months
NII
4,062
4,056
0.1
3,525
15.2
Pre-prov. profit
3,628
4,092
(11.3)
3,162
14.7
Stock Info
PAT
1,916
1,978
(3.2)
1,611
18.9
Sector
Banking
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Cap (` cr)
1,14,843
Axis Bank reported a moderate set of numbers for 2QFY2016 with 8.9% yoy
Beta
1.4
growth in profit to `1,915.6cr, which is in line with our expectations. However,
52 Week High / Low
655/422
the asset quality took a severe hit with stressed assets increasing to `2,866cr
Avg. Daily Volume
91,91,947
(slippages + sale to ARCs + restructuring). However, the bank had pre-emptively
Face Value (`)
2
made provisions for the same, thereby cushioning the impact on profitability.
BSE Sensex
27,040
Advances growth remains strong; NIM improves qoq
Nifty
8,171
During 2QFY2016, the bank reported an advance growth of 23.1% yoy, while
Reuters Code
AXBK.BO
deposits grew by 14.2% yoy. The bank’s loan book growth outpaced industry
Bloomberg Code
AXSB@IN
loan growth, primarily due to strong traction witnessed in the retail and
corporate book. The retail book grew by 26.6% yoy and accounted for 40% of
the advances. The corporate loan book, which comprises 47% of the total
Shareholding Pattern (%)
advance book, increased by 25.8% yoy, mainly on account of refinancing and non-
Promoters
29.5
rupee financing.
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
14.5
The CASA ratio came in at 44.2%, declining by 29bp yoy, while it improved by
149bp on a qoq basis. The NIM improved qoq and stood at 3.85%, as the cost of
FII / NRIs / OCBs
42.1
funds fell by 13bp qoq to 5.99%. The impact of base rate cut in October will likely
Indian Public / Others
13.8
have an effect in the upcoming quarter’s NIM since 82% of the domestic loans of
the bank are linked to the base rate.
Asset quality deteriorated following the sale to ARC (`1,820cr). The sale was at
~65% haircut, with a `336cr hit on the P&L and `850cr accounted from
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
contingent provisions. Outstanding contingent provisions now stand at `450cr.
Sensex
(1.5)
0.6
46.3
Including this sale to ARC and restructuring, slippages stood at `2,866cr (4.1%
Axis Bank
(13.9)
13.9
111.7
annualized) vs the reported 0.8% annualized (without considering the sale to
ARC and restructured loans). However, the company had pre-emptively made
the provisions, thereby cushioning the impact on profitability. The bank
3-year price chart
restructured
`463cr worth of loans during the quarter. However, the
700
Management has reiterated its credit cost guidance of 90bp, while it has guided
600
for lower stressed asset formation in FY2016 (excluding the sale to ARC).
500
Outlook and valuation: Healthy pace of branch expansion and a strong
400
distribution network continue to be the driving force for the bank’s retail
300
business. Going forward, the bank will continue to focus on the retail business.
200
While the near term asset quality environment remains challenging, the company
100
will be able to absorb the credit costs given the adequate profitability. The bank
0
is positioned strongly to benefit once the macros revive. We are of the view that
the stock is over discounting the near-term concerns. The stock currently trades at
2.0x P/ABV FY2017E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised target
price of `630.
Key financials (Standalone)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016E
FY2017E
NII
11,952
14,224
16,740
20,033
Vaibhav Agrawal
% chg
23.6
19.0
17.7
19.7
022 - 3935 7800 Ext: 6808
Net profit
6,218
7,358
8,472
10,309
% chg
20.0
18.3
15.1
21.7
NIM (%)
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
Chintan Shah
EPS (`)
26.5
31.0
35.7
43.5
P/E (x)
18.2
15.6
13.5
11.1
022 - 4000 3600 Ext: 6828
P/ABV (x)
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.0
RoA (%)
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
Pl
n
t
t
re
1
RoE (%)
17.4
17.9
17.9
18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of October 28, 2015
Axis Bank | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2016 performance summary (Standalone)
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY16
1QFY16
% chg (qoq)
2QFY15
% chg (yoy)
FY2015
FY2014
% chg
Interest earned
9,960
9,936
0.2
8,602
15.8
35,479
30,641
15.8
- on Advances / Bills
7,344
7,074
3.8
6,256
17.4
25,868
21,950
17.8
- on investments
2,189
2,475
(11.6)
2,205
(0.7)
9,117
8,343
9.3
- on balance with RBI & others
92
88
4.0
54
68.2
231
167
38.7
- on others
335
299
12.0
87
284.6
262
181
45.1
Interest Expended
5,898
5,880
0.3
5,078
16.1
21,254
18,690
13.7
Net Interest Income
4,062
4,056
0.1
3,525
15.2
14,224
11,952
19.0
Other income
2,041
2,298
(11.2)
1,948
4.8
8,365
7,405
13.0
Other income excl. treasury
1,874
1,652
13.4
1,677
11.8
7,230
6,478
11.6
- Fee Income
1,813
1,551
16.9
1,591
14.0
6,779
5,985
13.3
- Trading gains
168
646
(74.1)
271
(38.2)
1,135
927
22.5
- Others
61
101
(39.9)
86
(28.9)
451
493
(8.5)
Operating income
6,103
6,355
(4.0)
5,472
11.5
22,589
19,357
16.7
Operating expenses
2,476
2,262
9.4
2,310
7.2
9,204
7,901
16.5
- Employee expenses
829
809
2.5
786
5.5
3,115
2,601
19.7
- Other Opex
1,646
1,453
13.3
1,524
8.0
6,089
5,299
14.9
Pre-provision Profit
3,628
4,092
(11.3)
3,162
14.7
13,385
11,456
16.8
Provisions & Contingencies
707
1,122
(37.0)
725
(2.5)
2,329
2,107
10.5
- Provisions for NPAs
634
824
(23.0)
638
(0.6)
1,707
1,295
31.8
- Other Provisions
73
298
(75.5)
87
(16.1)
622
812
(23.5)
PBT
2,921
2,970
(1.7)
2,437
19.8
11,057
9,349
18.3
Provision for Tax
1,005
992
1.3
827
21.6
3,699
3,131
18.1
PAT
1,916
1,978
(3.2)
1,611
18.9
7,358
6,218
18.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
October 27, 2015
2
Axis Bank | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2016 performance analysis (Standalone)
Particulars
2QFY16
1QFY16% chg (qoq) 2QFY15 % chg (yoy)
Balance sheet
Advances (` cr)
2,98,066
2,84,649
4.7
2,42,198
23.1
Deposits (` cr)
3,24,101
3,07,784
5.3
2,83,728
14.2
Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%)
92.0
92.5
(52)bp
85.4
660bp
Current deposits (` cr)
53,691
46,838
14.6
46,492
15.5
Saving deposits (` cr)
89,717
84,776
5.8
79,875
12.3
CASA deposits (` cr)
1,43,408
1,31,614
9.0
1,26,367
13.5
CASA ratio (%)
44.2
42.8
149bp
44.5
(29)bp
CAR (%)*
15.4
14.5
92bp
15.9
(48)bp
Tier 1 CAR (%)*
12.2
12.2
6bp
12.6
(36)bp
Profitability Ratios (%)
Cost of funds
6.0
6.3
(13)bp
6.2
(20)bp
Reported NIM
3.9
3.8
4bp
4.0
(12)bp
Cost-to-income ratio
40.6
35.6
496bp
42.2
(165)bp
Asset quality
Gross NPAs (` cr)
4,451
4,251
4.7
3,613
23.2
Gross NPAs (%)
1.4
1.4
0bp
1.3
4bp
Net NPAs (` cr)
1,544
1,461
5.6
1,180
30.8
Net NPAs (%)
0.5
0.5
0bp
0.4
4bp
Provision Coverage Ratio (%)
87.0
78.0
900bp
78.0
900bp
Slippage ratio (%)
0.8
2.1
(123)bp
1.6
(75)bp
Loan loss prov. to avg. assets (%)
0.5
0.8
(24)bp
0.7
(15)bp
Source: Company, Angel Research *Basel III excluding profits
Advances growth remains healthy; NIM improves qoq
During 2QFY2016, the bank reported an advance growth of 23.1% yoy, while
deposits grew by 14.2% yoy. The bank’s loan book growth outpaced the industry
loan growth, primarily due to strong traction witnessed in the retail and corporate
book. The retail book grew by 26.6% yoy and accounted for 40% of the advances
(86% of the domestic retail lending book is secured). Retail composition includes
48% of advances towards housing loans, 15% towards retail agricultural loans, 8%
towards auto loans, and 10% is contributed by personal loans and credit cards.
The corporate loan book which comprises 47% of the total advance book
increased by 25.8% yoy, mainly on account of refinancing and non-rupee
financing. Also, the bank mentioned that 80% of fresh sanctions have been to
companies rated ‘A’ and above. We saw an improvement in the In the corporate
segment with 61% of the book in the ‘A to AAA’ category vs 60% as at the end of
the sequential previous quarter.
The CASA deposits grew at 14% yoy. The CASA ratio came in at 44.2%, which is a
decline of 29bp yoy while it improved by 149bp qoq. The NIM saw an improvement
qoq at 3.85%, as cost of funds fell by by 13bp qoq to 15.99%. The impact of base
rate cut in October will likely have an effect in the upcoming quarter’s NIM since
82% of the domestic loans of the bank are linked to the base rate.
October 27, 2015
3
Axis Bank | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 3: CASA balances grew at 14% yoy
Exhibit 4: Period-end CASA ratio at 44.2%
Reported yoy growth in average CASA balances (%)
(%)
20
46.0
44.5
44.8
44.2
16
16
44.0
43.1
42.8
15
14
15
13
42.0
40.0
10
38.0
36.0
5
34.0
32.0
0
30.0
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Cost of funds declines qoq
Exhibit 6: NIM at 3.85%
Reported NIMs (%)
Cost of funds (%)
(%)
4.5
6.50
4.2
3.97
3.93
6.00
3.81
3.80
3.85
6.26
3.9
4.0
6.19
6.17
6.1
6.0
5.50
3.6
3.5
5.00
3.3
4.50
3.0
3.0
4.00
2.5
2.7
3.50
3.97
3.93
3.81
3.80
3.85
2.4
2.0
3.00
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
Slow growth in non-interest income
Other income (comprising fee, trading profit and miscellaneous
income)
for
2QFY2016 grew at a slow pace of 5% yoy at `2,041cr as against `1,948cr during
the same period last year. During the quarter, fee income grew 14% yoy to reach
`1,813cr. The key driver to the growth in fee income was retail banking, which
grew by 19% yoy and constituted 40% of the bank’s total fee income. Other
income was adversely impacted by a decline in capital gains by 38.2% yoy. The
Management reiterated that the fee income would grow in mid-teens in FY2016.
October 27, 2015
4
Axis Bank | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Stressed assets elevated
Asset quality deteriorated following the sale to ARC (`1,820cr). The sale was at
~65% haircut, with a `336cr hit on the P&L and `850cr accounted from
contingent provisions. Outstanding contingent provisions now stand at `450cr.
Including this sale to ARC and restructuring, slippages stood at `2,866cr (4.1%
annualized) vs the reported 0.8% annualized (without considering the sale to ARC
and restructured loans). However, the company had pre-emptively made the
provisions, thereby cushioning the impact on profitability. The bank restructured
`463cr worth of loans during the quarter. However, the Management has
reiterated its credit cost guidance of 90bp, while it has guided for lower stressed
asset formation in FY2016 (excluding the sale to ARC).
Exhibit 7: Slippages ratio declines qoq and yoy
Exhibit 8: Trend in NPA ratios
Gross NPAs (%)
Net NPAs (%)
NPA coverage (%, RHS)
(%)
2.00
1.69
1.25
85
1.58
78
78
78
78
78
1.60
1
1.23
77.5
1.20
1.06
0.75
0.83
70
0.80
0.5
62.5
0.40
0.25
-
0
55
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: PCR including tech. write-offs
Exhibit 9: Steady Network expansion continues
Exhibit 10: Cost-to-income ratio improves yoy to 40.6%
Branches
ATMs (RHS)
Staff costs (` cr)
Other opex (` cr)
CIR (%, RHS)
3200
12874
15000
1,250
48.0
12930
13146
12355
12179
2800
12500
1,000
43.5
44.0
42.1
2400
41.1
10000
750
39.6
42.2
2000
41.5
40.0
7500
40.6
500
1600
38.1
36.0
5000
250
1200
35.6
2500
-
32.0
800
400
0
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
Source: Company, Angel Research;
Source: Company, Angel Research
October 27, 2015
5
Axis Bank | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Outlook and valuation: Healthy pace of branch expansion and a strong
distribution network continue to be the driving force for the bank’s retail business.
Going forward, the bank will continue to focus on the retail business. While in the
near term asset quality environment remains challenging, the company will be
able to absorb the credit costs given the adequate profitability. The bank is
positioned strongly to benefit once the macros revive. We are of the view that the
stock is over discounting the near term concerns. The stock currently trades a 2.0x
P/ABV FY2017E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised target price
of `630.
Exhibit 11: Recommendation summary
CMP
Tgt. Price
Upside
FY2017E
FY2017E
FY2017E
FY15-17E
FY2017E
FY2017E
Company
Reco.
(`)
(`)
(%)
P/ABV (x)
Tgt. P/ABV (x)
P/E (x)
EPS CAGR (%)
RoA (%)
RoE (%)
HDFCBk
Accumulate
1,112
1,262
13.5
3.3
3.8
18.2
22.4
1.9
19.7
ICICIBk*
Buy
272
345
27.0
1.8
2.1
10.8
15.2
1.6
15.6
YesBk
Buy
729
914
25.3
1.9
2.4
10.5
20.2
1.6
19.6
AxisBk
Buy
483
630
30.4
2.0
2.6
11.1
18.4
1.8
18.9
SBI*
Buy
242
295
21.7
1.2
1.2
9.9
17.8
0.7
13.1
FedBk
Neutral
56
-
-
1.0
1.1
9.0
3.1
1.1
12.7
SIB
Neutral
21
-
-
0.7
0.8
6.3
21.6
0.7
11.6
BOB
Neutral
164
-
-
0.8
0.8
6.6
27.1
0.7
12.1
PNB
Neutral
131
-
-
0.6
0.6
4.8
28.5
0.7
12.0
BOI
Neutral
135
-
-
0.3
1.0
4.0
14.0
0.3
7.6
IndBk
Neutral
130
-
-
0.4
0.4
4.4
19.4
0.7
9.3
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
36
-
-
0.5
0.5
5.5
14.1
0.4
8.8
OBC
Neutral
137
-
-
0.3
0.5
3.0
65.5
0.5
9.4
Allahabad Bank Neutral
76
-
-
0.3
0.3
3.0
53.5
0.6
10.9
UnionBk
Neutral
164
-
-
0.5
0.4
4.2
18.1
0.6
11.4
CanBk
Neutral
284
-
-
0.5
0.3
4.1
9.8
0.5
10.7
AllBk
Neutral
76
-
-
0.3
0.4
3.0
53.5
0.6
10.9
IDBI#
Neutral
86
-
-
0.6
0.6
6.1
61.6
0.6
9.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Axis Bank is India's third-largest private sector bank after ICICI Bank and HDFC
Bank. The bank is promoted by government institutions, led by UTI (SUUTI holds
12% stake currently). The bank has an extensive network of 2,743 branches and
12,352 ATMs spread across 1,796 centers (~51% in metro and urban regions).
The bank's strong growth has been backed by robust retail branch expansion,
strong corporate relationships and a wide range of fee income products.
October 27, 2015
6
Axis Bank | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Income statement (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Net Interest Income
6,563
8,018
9,666
11,952
14,224
16,740
20,033
- YoY Growth (%)
31.1
22.2
20.6
23.6
19.0
17.7
19.7
Other Income
4,632
5,420
6,551
7,405
8,365
9,733
11,493
- YoY Growth (%)
17.4
17.0
20.9
13.0
13.0
16.3
18.1
Operating Income
11,195
13,438
16,217
19,357
22,589
26,473
31,527
- YoY Growth (%)
25.1
20.0
20.7
19.4
16.7
17.2
19.1
Operating Expenses
4,779
6,007
6,914
7,901
9,204
10,354
12,270
- YoY Growth (%)
28.8
25.7
15.1
14.3
16.5
12.5
18.5
Pre - Provision Profit
6,416
7,431
9,303
11,456
13,385
16,118
19,257
- YoY Growth (%)
22.4
15.8
25.2
23.1
16.8
20.4
19.5
Prov. & Cont.
1,280
1,143
1,750
2,107
2,329
3,162
3,491
- YoY Growth (%)
(7.9)
(10.7)
53.1
20.4
10.5
35.8
10.4
Profit Before Tax
5,136
6,288
7,553
9,349
11,057
12,956
15,765
- YoY Growth (%)
33.3
22.4
20.1
23.8
18.3
17.2
21.7
Prov. for Taxation
1,747
2,046
2,373
3,131
3,699
4,484
5,456
- as a % of PBT
34.0
32.5
31.4
33.5
33.5
34.6
34.6
PAT
3,388
4,242
5,179
6,218
7,358
8,472
10,309
- YoY Growth (%)
34.8
25.2
22.1
20.0
18.3
15.1
21.7
Balance sheet (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Share Capital
411
413
468
470
474
474
474
Reserve & Surplus
18,588
22,395
32,640
37,751
43,463
50,039
58,061
Deposits
1,89,238
2,20,104
2,52,614
2,80,945
3,22,442
3,80,481
4,67,992
- Growth (%)
33.9
16.3
14.8
11.2
14.8
18.0
23.0
Borrowings
19,275
23,498
31,412
37,886
64,872
47,496
56,951
Tier 2 Capital
6,993
10,574
12,540
12,405
14,886
14,514
14,151
Other Liab. & Prov.
8,209
8,643
10,888
13,789
15,795
17,709
21,407
Total Liabilities
2,42,713
2,85,628
3,40,561
3,83,245
4,61,932
5,10,713
6,19,037
Cash Balances
13,886
10,703
14,792
17,041
19,819
19,024
23,400
Bank Balances
7,522
3,231
5,643
11,197
16,280
17,999
21,817
Investments
71,992
93,192
1,13,738
1,13,548
1,32,343
1,17,134
1,35,599
Advances
1,42,408
1,69,760
1,96,966
2,30,067
2,81,083
3,42,921
4,21,793
- Growth (%)
36.5
19.2
16.0
16.8
22.2
22.0
23.0
Fixed Assets
2,273
2,259
2,356
2,410
2,514
2,696
3,170
Other Assets
4,632
6,483
7,067
8,981
9,893
10,938
13,258
Total Assets
2,42,713
2,85,628
3,40,561
3,83,245
4,61,932
5,10,713
6,19,037
- Growth (%)
34.4
17.7
19.2
12.5
20.5
10.6
21.2
October 27, 2015
7
Axis Bank | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Ratio analysis (Standalone)
Y/E March
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Profitability ratios (%)
NIMs
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
Cost to Income Ratio
42.7
44.7
42.6
40.8
40.7
39.1
38.9
RoA
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
RoE
19.3
20.3
18.5
17.4
17.9
17.9
18.9
B/S ratios (%)
CASA Ratio
41.1
41.5
44.4
45.0
44.8
45.5
45.2
Credit/Deposit Ratio
75.3
77.1
78.0
81.9
87.2
90.1
90.1
CAR
12.7
13.7
17.0
16.3
16.0
16.1
15.0
- Tier I
9.4
9.4
12.2
12.8
12.2
12.7
12.1
Asset Quality (%)
Gross NPAs
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.4
2.1
2.6
Net NPAs
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.7
Slippages
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.4
Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
Provision Coverage
74.3
73.8
70.6
77.2
68.0
75.0
75.0
Per Share Data (`)
EPS
16.5
20.5
22.1
26.5
31.0
35.7
43.5
ABVPS (75% cover.)
92.5
110.3
141.0
161.7
184.1
213.1
246.9
DPS
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
5.9
6.8
8.2
Valuation Ratios
PER (x)
29.3
23.5
21.8
18.2
15.6
13.5
11.1
P/ABVPS (x)
5.2
4.4
3.4
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.0
Dividend Yield
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.7
DuPont Analysis
NII
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
(-) Prov. Exp.
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
Adj. NII
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
Treasury
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
Int. Sens. Inc.
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.2
Other Inc.
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.8
Op. Inc.
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.8
4.8
4.8
5.0
Opex
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
PBT
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
Taxes
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
RoA
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
Leverage
12.1
12.6
11.2
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.4
RoE
19.3
20.3
18.5
17.4
17.9
17.9
18.9
October 27, 2015
8
Axis Bank | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
DISCLAIMER
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has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Axis Bank
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
Yes
4. Broking relationship with company covered
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
October 27, 2015
9
